While the Hungarian Grand Prix is the twelfth race of the season, its position immediately before F1's summer break makes it a psychological midpoint.
The two-week shut down gives teams and drivers the opportunity to take stock, to reevaluate their chances against the competition.
After his well-deserved win at the Hungaroring, Mark Webber starts the summer break at the top of the charts. His win and teammate Sebastian Vettel's third place have put Red Bull ahead of McLaren in the constructors' championship, albeit by a small margin.
Neither Webber nor Red Bull can afford to rest on their laurels, as the fight for the championships is likely to remain a close-fought battle to the finish. Webber first has to beat Vettel, but the psychological advantage belongs to the Australian. By rights, Vettel should be the man on top. The young German has scored seven of his team's pole positions this season, but a combination of mechanical failures, poor starts, and a self-inflicted retirement in Turkey mean that the boy wonder is playing catch-up.
Vettel will start the summer break aware of the fact that the Hungarian race was his to lose. Despite holding on to his lead at the start, the combination of a safety car, a drive-through penalty, and the turbulent air from Fernando Alonso's Ferrari kept the young driver in P3.
Hungary marks yet another lost opportunity on Vettel's road to Abu Dhabi.
If the Red Bull driver spends the next few weeks dwelling on the missed opportunities, he will talk himself out of the championship. Vettel can find it hard to keep his emotions in check, and his demons could cost him the chance of the drivers' crown this year.
The summer break will also be a time of soul-searching at McLaren, who lost their place atop drivers' and constructors' championships in Budapest. The team have been vulnerable all season, with a car that cannot match the RB6 in qualifying. Lewis Hamilton was P1 in the drivers' standings thanks to his impressive runs this season, but also as a result of Red Bull's misfortunes. Jenson Button's P2 was a similar story – McLaren have been able to capitalise on Red Bull's errors on Sunday, but are hamstrung on Saturdays.
But Button has seen a recent decline in qualifying performance, and has not been happy with the handling of the MP4-25 since the team began working on the exhaust blown diffuser. Hamilton has fared better than his teammate, but is the superior talent when it comes to driving around a car's problems. The 2008 champion has been able to drag the car to the top of the non-Red Bull, non-Ferrari pack in qualifying, but that isn't good enough for the WDC.
The [McLaren] car is fast on Sundays, but can't compete on Saturday afternoon.
Now that Ferrari have begun locking out the front two rows with Red Bull, McLaren are in a very precarious position. The gap to Red Bull was always too small for comfort and has now been overcome. The Scuderia are catching up fast, and should Spa offer a similar weekend to Budapest, Fernando Alonso would overtake Hamilton in the WDC standings. Unless the British team can turn it around at Spa, they look likely to be relegated to the second tier behind front runners Ferrari and Red Bull.
Ferrari's about-turn in performance has not been as rapid as the stats make it seem, thanks to a series of races beleaguered by bad luck and poor strategic calls. But the blistering pace on show at the Hockenheimring, where Alonso was within 0.002s of pace-setter Vettel's qualifying time, showed that the Scuderia were still a force to be reckoned with. But at the Hungaroring it was clear that while Ferrari have pace and generate enough dirty air to keep a Red Bull in their mirrors.
The [Ferrari] F10's new-found speed is a threat to McLaren, not to the Austrian drinks company.
As long as Red Bull can get ahead of the F10 – and qualifying and strategy alike have shown they can – then their speed advantage is currently unassailable. But as far as development goes, McLaren are several races behind Ferrari, who have nailed the exhaust blown diffuser and retarded ignition, as well as the flexible front wing. The Woking outfit need to find the same development sweet spot that turned the MP4-24 around in 2009, turning a dog into a credible race winner. This year's car is no dog, but a lot of work is needed to save the championships.
Both Mercedes drivers have now acknowledged that they are no longer in with a chance of winning either title this year. Michael Schumacher has been out of the hunt for a while, but Nico Rosberg's recent slump in form – largely down to the car's relative drop in performance since Silverstone – has put paid to the young German's remote title hopes.
The German team has announced its focus is now the 2011 challenger, and elder statesman of the sport Michael Schumacher is relishing the opportunity to develop next year's car from the ground up, building a machine that suits his driving style.
Nico Rosberg is currently P7 in the WDC standings, three points behind Felipe Massa and five points ahead of Robert Kubica. The three men are essentially competing for P6 in the standings; the gap to Alonso in P5 is such that it is unlikely to be overcome. The improved F10 could give Massa the necessary points to beat his teammate, but only if the Spaniard has another run of bad luck.
Renault and Mercedes are competing for P4 in the WCC. Going in to the summer break, the points advantage is Mercedes'. But the two German drivers are suffering a loss of confidence in the car just as young Russian Vitaly Petrov is getting into his stride behind the wheel of the R30. If Petrov continues to drive as well as he did at the Hungaroring, Renault will quickly acquire the points needed to push Mercedes into P5.
Force India have not lived up to expectations this year. Having spent 2008 at the back of the pack, the Silverstone-based team were one of the surprises of 2009, claiming pole at Spa and losing the race to a safety car and Kimi Raikkonen's KERS button. But 2010 has seen a brain drain to Lotus, and early promise from Adrian Sutil at Sepang has not translated into consistent finishes at the top end of the points.
Sutil and Liuzzi are no longer in the position to challenge Renault for P5; instead the team must now focus their attention on Williams, who will shortly be challenging Force India for P6 in the WCC. Sutil and Liuzzi are also vulnerable in the WDC standings – the nearest challenger to Sutil in P10 is Rubens Barrichello, five points behind in P11, while Liuzzi's P14 is under threat from Nico Hulkenberg, only two points behind in P15.
With Williams' recent upturn in performance, it should only be a matter of time before they overtake Force India in both championships. Nico Hulkenberg was heralded as Formula 1's bright young thing when he arrived in the paddock, and like fellow rookie Petrov is now becoming more confident on track. Recent aerodynamic upgrades have given both drivers more pace in qualifying, and early season reliability issues appear to have been resolved.
Sauber are another team on the up. The Swiss team's early season was beset with engine failures and money worries, but recent races have seen an improvement in both spheres. Hungary was a highlight for the team, with both drivers finishing in the points for the first time this season, but the improvement may have come too late for them to salvage anything more than P8 in the WCC.
Like Force India, Toro Rosso have seen an overall drop in performance this season. The team have had to design and develop their car for the first time, and 2010 is more learning curve than outright competition. Jaime Alguersuari and Sebastian Buemi are both able pilots, but both are young men very much in the development phase of their careers – future contenders, not current winners.
The drop in performance to the new teams is such that the three are engaged in their own mini championship, it hardly being fair to compare a Virgin with a Red Bull. But Lotus have been outright winners of the new team championship, despite Jarno Trulli's regular hydraulics failures and subsequent retirements.
All of the new teams are steadily improving, learning about racecraft and development with every weekend. None is in with a chance of scoring points except in highly unusual circumstances, but Lotus are not far away from mixing with the Toro Rossos on track.
HRT would benefit from driver stability, as the team's pick n' mix approach since Silverstone is doing them no favours on track, but the Spanish outfit are still a few years away from challenging for points. Any improvements this season will see them edge closer to the Lotuses, but established outfits are out of reach.
Like HRT, Virgin can only close the gap to the rest of the field, not challenge for points. But in the past two races the Sheffield team has seen an improvement in pace, qualifying position, and reliability. If they continue in this vein, they could overtake HRT in both standings.
10 second report card
Red Bull – Best car, should have a stronger lead. WDC and WCC contenders, should have won already.
Mark Webber – Career-best drives nearly every week.
Sebastian Vettel – Perfect on Saturday, unlucky and impetuous on Sunday.
McLaren – Must find qualifying pace. WDC and WCC in sight, but not guaranteed.
Lewis Hamilton – Driving like a bat out of hell, deserves more.
Jenson Button – Early performance overshadowed by recent poor qualifying.
Ferrari – Bad start, some bad judgement, stellar recent improvement. WDC and WCC contenders.
Fernando Alonso – Winning the intra-team championship, losing face.
Felipe Massa – Yet to regain pre-accident form; Germany proved he still has pace.
Mercedes – Unable to pick up Brawn's championship momentum, no chance of 2010 titles.
Nico Rosberg – Decent season, dominating the teammate battle.
Michael Schumacher – Comeback not as successful as anyone hoped.
Renault – Surprising pace, could challenge for the front in 2011.
Robert Kubica – Dark horse has come out of his shell.
Vitaly Petrov – Should challenge for podiums when he matures.
Force India – Started well, but performance has slumped of late.
Adrian Sutil – No longer crash happy, is maturing before our eyes.
Tonio Liuzzi – Needs more time on track, but deserves his place on the grid.
Williams – Longed-for win unlikely despite recent improvement.
Rubens Barrichello – Flourishing at the right team.
Nico Hulkenberg – Came with too much hype, but talented.
Sauber – Recent improvement in reliability, but too late for a championship challenge.
Kamui Kobayashi – Rookie yet to return to 2009's tantalising form.
Pedro de la Rosa – Slow start to the season, unlucky with engines.
Toro Rosso – Challenging year as a constructor, but drivers improving.
Sebastian Buemi – Young talent needs more time to shine.
Jaime Alguersuari – Younger talent needs more time to develop, mature.
Lotus – New team wins battle for hearts, newbie supremacy.
Heikki Kovalainen – Running well, but looking to 2011 for an improved car.
Jarno Trulli – Season blighted by hydraulics problems.
HRT – Dogged by rumours of financial crisis from 2009 onwards.
Karun Chandhok – Popular in the paddock, deserves to be back behind the wheel.
Bruno Senna – Burdened by car and surname, needs more time to prove his worth.
Sakon Yamamoto – Temporary driver in the wrong car to shine.
Virgin – Popular with fans and paddock, but least reliable of the new teams.
Lucas di Grassi – Talented rookie heads experienced teammate in the standings.
Timo Glock – Needs to improve recent form to outshine his rookie teammate.
Source: Girlracer Magazine
